Game Economy Manager Assessment — Tamir Bonavida

For each level, the entry fee is 1,000 coins. The expected payout is 480 coins based on a 40% win rate × 1,200 coin prize. Average coin drain per match: 480 − 1,000 = −520 coins per round on average. A starter pack of 5,000 coins will last an average player for 9.62 matches. 5,000 / 520 = 9.62 matches. Session length — an average of nearly 10 matches makes the session runway too short. It doesn't give the player enough time to build a gameplay habit and stay committed for the long run. Managing player bankruptcy risk — to stop players from churning due to an early losing streak, the core loop must be supported by a multi-currency system. Optimal liveops recommendation — include gems in the starter pack or give them out as match rewards. Gems run on a separate economic lane and grant access to free-to-play practice modes. This acts as a psychological safety net, keeping the player engaged in the core loop even after they go broke on coins, while protecting the profit margins of the main tournaments monetized by coins or cash.

To determine the optimal value for the $1.99 pack, I used the $0.99 pack as a benchmark while applying a volume discount. Linear base value for $1.99: (5,000 / 0.99) × 1.99 = 10,050 coins Proposed volume discount for the permanent shop: 12.4% bonus value. Final shop offer: 11,300 coins This pack will provide an average of 21.73 expected matches. Reconversion trigger: after 21 matches (on average), the average player will finish with a small residual balance below the 1,000-coin entry fee, creating a feeling of being almost close enough for another match and increasing the probability of repeat purchase. I recommend implementing a two-tier pricing architecture to maximize both steady-state revenue and conversion peaks: • Tier 1: permanent shop anchor (12.4% bonus) — serves as a rigid and predictable psychological anchor. Its primary role is to establish a baseline perception of normal value. • Tier 2: limited-time flash deals (40% bonus) — aggressive and time-sensitive offers. This deal will provide the player with over 27 matches on average, offering high value.

Relying on a uniform expectancy of a 40% win rate ignores the extreme variance in player behavior, creating a 66% gap in session runway for an identical $0.99 purchase. • A casual player at 30% win rate gets only ~7.8 matches. • A skilled player at 50% win rate extracts ~12.5 matches. This gap creates a double structural distortion across our two core revenue streams: The 30% cohort (rapid churn) — this group experiences rapid wallet depletion which can lead to churn before forming a habit loop or deposit habits. The company absorbs high user acquisition costs without maximizing long-term value. The 50% cohort (deposit stagnation) — this group generates a high volume of matches and strong rake velocity. However, their highly efficient currency recycling slows down their net economic drain. The incentive for follow-up purchases is weak, leaving the user highly active in the rake model but completely frozen in the in-app purchase funnel.

1. Skill-based matchmaking How it works — the game algorithm matches players with similar skill levels. Why it solves the problem — proper matchmaking maintains a win rate closer to the defined average, reducing variance and stabilizing the revenue curve. 2. Dynamic league system and tier progression How it works — players are divided into dynamic, skill-based leagues. The stronger a player is, the further they progress into higher leagues with higher entry fees and more aggressive reward structures. Why it solves the problem — separates the economics of strong and weak players; highly skilled players are routed into leagues tailored to them, while casual players remain protected in lower leagues that fit their budget. 3. Multi-currency system How it works — integrating gems alongside the primary currency. Players receive gems that allow them to keep playing without purchasing a bundle. Why it solves the problem — direct solution to churn within the 30% cohort; creates a psychological safety net giving them time to develop gameplay and deposit habits without harming the game economy. 4. Targeted liveops offers How it works — offering high-value, low-cost deals specifically to players on a losing streak. Why it solves the problem — halts wallet depletion in real time and immediately pulls casual players back into the core gameplay loop. 5. Entry fee tiering How it works — offering varied entry levels (500 / 1,000 / 2,000 coins). Why it solves the problem — allows players to play with lower risk.

The 1,000 players are divided into 4 tiers using asymmetric percentiles on a weighted composite score: Final score = (EntryFeeRank × 0.4) + (WinRateRank × 0.3) + (SessionsRank × 0.2) + (CashWonRank × 0.1) Tier 1 (top 95%) — 50 players Tier 2 (70%–95%) — 250 players Tier 3 (25%–70%) — 450 players Tier 4 (0–25%) — 250 players Rationale: Asymmetric percentiles — gaming activity and monetization follow a Pareto distribution. Standard median splits group drastically different spending levels together; asymmetric percentiles effectively isolate high-value outliers. Multi-variable metric — combining volume, skill and spend prevents one-time events or inactive accounts from skewing the leaderboards. Player fairness & retention: Since tournament scoring scales directly with cash winning (1 point = $1), a single leaderboard would allow high rollers and grinders to dominate. This matrix ensures players only compete among 50 players, maintaining high motivation and a realistic chance to win. Rewards (paid in bonus cash to keep funds within the game loop): Segment A — top 5 winners | depth 10% 1st: $100 bonus cash + 10,000 gems 2nd–3rd: $50 bonus cash + 5,000 gems 4th–5th: $25 bonus cash + 2,500 gems 6th–50th: no prize Segment B — top 10 | depth 20% 1st: $40 bonus cash + 4,000 gems 2nd–3rd: $20 bonus cash + 2,000 gems 4th–5th: $10 bonus cash + 1,000 gems 6th–10th: $5 bonus cash + 500 gems 11th–50th: no prize Segment C — top 15 | depth 30% 1st: $15 bonus cash + 2,000 gems 2nd–3rd: $8 bonus cash + 1,000 gems 4th–5th: $4 bonus cash + 500 gems 6th–10th: $2 bonus cash + 250 gems 11th–15th: $1 bonus cash + 100 gems 16th–50th: no prize Segment D — top 20 | depth 40% 1st: $5 bonus cash + 1,500 gems 2nd–3rd: $2 bonus cash + 1,000 gems 4th–5th: $1 bonus cash + 500 gems 6th–10th: 300 gems 11th–20th: 100 gems 21st–50th: no prize

To determine the exact day-to-day X%, a data-driven framework will dynamically adjust bonuses based on 4 real-time variables: • Cohort risk profile: monitors active player win rates to protect house margins against highly skilled users. • Temporal & calendar factors: adjusts for seasonality, weekday/weekend baseline and concurrent live events. • LTV metrics: aligns bonuses with user lifetime value trends and acquisition costs to optimize ROI per segment. • Validation methodology: continuously run localized A/B tests. Casual segment (25% bonus, $30 cap): this high percentage maximizes perceived value for low-volume players, triggering initial conversions and habituating deposits with low financial exposure. Whales segment (15% bonus, $500 cap): high-value depositors don't need an aggressive percentage to convert but require a higher absolute dollar cap. Lowering the boost protects the ecosystem from excessive bonus cash injection while driving high-volume deposits. Active economy sinks — to maintain a balanced game economy, exclusive sinks will be introduced. Players can use their earned bonus currency in dedicated tournaments to purchase high-status cosmetic items. Time-bound currency loop — the bonus currency acts as cash within the game loop but cannot be withdrawn and features a strict 72-hour expiration window. This constraint drives player velocity, incentivizing users to play more and spend their earned bonus quickly.

Pros: • Strict margin protection: capping the boost at 25% in bonus cash prevents negative cash flow. • Psychological balance: the $30 cap eliminates conversion barriers and drives high perceived value for casual players. • Retention loop: the 72-hour expiration window incentivizes players to return for three consecutive days. • Currency recycling: cosmetic reward tournaments efficiently burn excess bonus currency at zero house cost. Cons: • Inflation risk: calculating the boost on gross wins instead of net wins could flood the economy with free currency. • Promotional fatigue: frequent 25% boosts can habituate players to high discounts, making standard offers ineffective.

Coin Sale vs Win Boost Comparison: Core drivers: • Coin sale: drives conversion metrics only — a one-time, localized deposit in the shop with no requirement for subsequent activity or engagement. • Win boost: a powerful hybrid driver maximizing conversion, retention and rake; generates an initial deposit, significantly extends sessions, and drives company profitability. Inflation risk: • Coin sale: medium risk. The exact coin volume is known upfront and priced relatively high. However, coins enter the wallet and can remain in game cash flow for a prolonged period. • Win boost: low and controlled performance-based risk. Coins only enter the economy through active victories; there is a strict limit on both quantity and time. The day-after effect: • Coin sale: generates a spike-and-drop effect; sharp decline in deposits the following days; leaves excess currency in player wallet and habituates the player to wait for the next sale. • Win boost: generates strong player motivation; the boost accumulates in the wallet, allowing users to earn more than usual and participate in larger tournaments — creating a hunger to keep playing. Currency injection: • Coin sale: upfront and static — full value granted immediately at purchase, completely independent of player behavior. • Win boost: drip-based controlled injection — the bonus enters the economy gradually throughout the session, directly proportional to the user's skill and gameplay volume. Player perception: • Coin sale: a straightforward transactional commercial deal; the player simply bought something at a predefined discount. • Win boost: a competitive, skill-based achievement; the player feels they earned the bonus through their own skill. Target audience: • Coin sale: targets casual or lapsed players who need a simple, low-commitment incentive. • Win boost: highly appealing to engaged players and whales planning an intensive gameplay session. Coin sale and win boost are complementary tools within the overall player lifecycle.

$5 purchase tier: Deployment: lobby pop-up offering a one-time limited-time entry ticket with a 1-hour countdown timer granting a 25% win boost for 24h. Economic safeguard: $30 hard cap on total bonus cash awarded. $15 purchase tier: Deployment: post-victory pop-up displayed immediately after a match win, offering an event entry ticket granting a 24% win boost for 24h. Economic safeguard: $50 hard cap on total bonus cash awarded. $25 purchase tier: Deployment: tournament preparation program starting in 2 hours, granting a 21% win boost for 24h. Economic safeguard: $100 hard cap on total bonus cash awarded + 1,000 gems. $35 purchase tier: Deployment: targeted promotions pushed within guilds and groups granting an 18% win boost for 24h. Economic safeguard: $150 hard cap on total bonus cash awarded + 1,500 gems. $50 purchase tier: Deployment: premium luxury pop-up offering a 15% win boost for 24h. Economic safeguard: $300 hard cap on total bonus cash awarded + 1,500 gems. $75 purchase tier: Deployment: premium luxury pop-up offering a 15% win boost for 24h. Economic safeguard: $500 hard cap on total bonus cash awarded + 2,000 gems.

While mathematically a multiplier of M=25 offers the highest probability of winning the prize at 43.75%, it creates a problem because the game ends in just two rounds. If the player loses, their perceived value experience is very low and their churn potential is high. In light of this, choosing a multiplier of M=10 is the correct and most profitable liveops strategy, due to several key factors: 1. The model M=10 grants 5 full rounds, creating a time window long enough to build psychological tension and a sense of value on investment, alongside attractive success odds of approximately 36.72% to reach 20 points. 2. The model provides the most balanced combination for most real-money gaming players, offering enough opportunities to recover and bounce back if the first round fails, alongside a substantial reward of 10 points per successful hit. 3. A 5-round structure generates a powerful emotional near-miss response that encourages replay. Economically, it generates a rake volume that is 2.5× higher compared to the M=25 model, directly improving profit margins.

The calculation is based on backward induction at the level-by-level stage: for each specific level, the expected prize is calculated and multiplied by the cumulative probability of the player reaching it (the product of the advancement probabilities from all previous levels). The sum of all level contributions yields a final expected win of 68.16 coins. Key observations: • The reality of the EV: while the total expected win is 68.16, the vast majority of players will walk away with much less. Approximately 80.8% of players will hit a 0 and exit the game at level 3 or earlier, leaving with a maximum cumulative average of 44 coins. • Level 0 is designed with 100% success rate to ensure a guaranteed positive initial experience, mitigating day 1 frustration and maximizing player engagement from the very first interaction. • The rising risk creates an ideal psychological tension curve. When a player is stopped at higher levels, it triggers a powerful near-miss effect, which drastically increases the likelihood of converting them into making an in-app purchase. • Having a fixed expected payout allows the studio to maintain strict macroeconomic control over the virtual economy and accurately balance the entry fee against currency injection. • The game serves as a powerful monetization utility tool, acting as an effective premium currency sink through pay-to-continue features. • Guaranteeing a baseline reward makes the mini-game highly versatile, fitting seamlessly as a daily login reward. • Hiding the exact values behind choices generates asymmetric information, driving strong emotional engagement fueled by curiosity, anticipation and surprise. • The entry cost can be strategically priced either below the expected value to drive player retention or above it to create a profitable currency sink.